人在马国后

不想多发表意见，因为发现马国前任首相马哈迪的网页竟然说出了我、我的周边朋友（受英文教育的同事，有马来人、华人、印度人，以及今天碰到的老同学和左邻右舍）心里的话。这里就侵犯老马的版权，断章取义地摘录表达我们心声的部分如下：

“.....
Obviously our increase in petrol price is far less than in the United Kingdom or the United States. But our per capita income is about one-third of theirs. In purchasing power terms our increase is more than in the UK or the US.
The increase hurts but the pain is greater not just because of the increase percentage-wise is higher than in developed countries but because of the manner the increase is made.
A few days ago the Government decided to ban sale of petrol to foreign cars. It flipped. Now foreign cars can buy again. Flopped.
Knowing that in a few days it was going to raise the price and foreigners would be allowed to buy, why cannot the Government just wait instead of banning and unbanning.But be that as it may what could the Government have done to lessen the burden on the people that results from the increase in petrol price.
.....

I believe the people expect the increase of petrol price. But what they are angry about is the quantum and the suddenness. The Prime Minister was hinting at August but suddenly it came two months earlier, just after the ban on sale of petrol to foreigners.If the increase had been more gradual, the people would not feel it so much. But of course this means that the Government would have to subsidise, though to a decreasing extent.

Can the Government subsidise? I am the “adviser” to Petronas but I know very little about it beyond what is published in its accounts. What I do know may not be very accurate but should be sufficient for me to draw certain conclusions.Roughly Malaysia produces 650,000 barrels of crude per day. We consume 400,000 barrels leaving 250,000 barrels to be exported.Three years ago the selling price of crude was about USD30 per barrel. Today it is USD130 -- an increase of USD100. There is hardly any increase in the production cost so that the extra USD100 can be considered as pure profit.
Our 250,000 barrels of export should earn us 250,000 x 100 x 365 x 3 = RM27,375,000,000 (twenty seven billion Ringgit). But Petronas made a profit of well over RM70 billion, all of which belong to the Government.By all accounts the Government is flushed with money.

But besides petrol the prices of palm oil, rubber and tin have also increased by about 400 per cent. Plantation companies and banks now earn as much as RM3 billion in profits each. Taxes paid by them must have also increased greatly.I feel sure that maintaining the subsidy and gradually decreasing it would not hurt the Government finances. In the medium term ways and means must be found to reduce wasteful consumption and increase income. We may not be able to fix the minimum wage at a high level but certainly we can improve the minimum wage. Actually our wages are high compared to some of our neighbours. The investors who come here are attracted not by cheap labour but by other factors, among which is the attitude of the Government towards the business community and the investors in particular.

From what I hear business friendliness is wanting in the present Government -- so much so that even Malaysians are investing in other countries. There are rumblings about political affiliations influencing decisions. Generally Government politicians are said to be arrogant.

Malaysia is short of manpower. The labour intensive industries are not benefiting Malaysians. Foreign workers are remitting huge sums of money home.The industrial policy must change so that high tech is promoted in order to give Malaysians higher wages to cope with rising costs of living.

The world is facing economic turmoil due to the depreciation of the US Dollar, the sub-prime loan crisis, rising oil and raw material prices, food shortages and the continued activities of the greedy hedge funds. The possibility of a US recession is real. In a way the US is already in recession. The world economy will be dragged down by it.

Malaysia will be affected by all these problems. I wonder whether the Government is prepared for this.We cannot avoid all the negative effects but there must be ways to mitigate against them and to lessen the burden that must be borne by all Malaysians. I am sure the Government will not just pass all these problems to the people as the review of oil prices every month seem to suggest."
（全文见http://www.chedet.com/2008/06/oil-price.html）

马哈迪的硬朗作风和保护主义固然并非非土著所能欣赏，可是若说今天的错是积非成是的后果，而要把罪全归给老马，却不太符合逻辑。明显地，阿都拉上台已经5年，他已经在2004年马来西亚全国大选中得到全国人民的大力支持，随后他也尽力要摆脱马哈迪的阴影，可见他应该有所为才对。可惜，他逃不过“绝对权力导致绝对腐烂”的宿命。短短的四年，我从商的朋友用这样的话来形容阿都拉政治：“马哈迪在位，找吃不容易；阿都拉上台，连渣也没有！”。因此，2008年刚过去的马来西亚全国大选，人民就大胆地表态：阿都拉我们不喜欢你了。今天，阿都拉既然坚持他和他的战友并没有输，也不认为人民不喜欢他，而是不喜欢国阵处理一些事情的方法，那么国阵理应大刀阔斧去芜存菁推行亲民仁政，以显示他和马哈迪是完完全全不同的。无奈，从这三个月的成绩来看，阿都拉和他的幕僚所施行的banning and unbanning式政策，的确让人摇头。